Robert Lund

Department of Statistics

University of South Carolina

"Periodic Time Series and United States Temperature Trends"

This talk examines periodic time series methods as a means of quantifying temperature trends in the United States. An overview of periodic time series will be given first. The developed methods will then be used to study linear trends in observed monthly temperatures from 359 stations in the United States over the last century. Issues of station site changes (changepoints), temporal correlations, and data collection frequency (yearly vs. monthly) are key. Spatial contour maps of the warming/cooling rates will be given and reveal a surprise (perhaps) for Southerners.

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