John Grego

Department of Statistics

University of South Carolina


Afternoons with Wilma
A Calibration Story

When FEMA developed new FIRM's (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) for the Congaree River, water levels developed from deterministic engineering models for floodplain hydraulics were often presented without any estimate of error. These hydraulics models are calibrated using information from historic flood events. As an offshoot of my interest in the FIRMs, I investigated whether the calibration process provided insights into estimation error for floodplain water levels. Wilma Sims (M.S. Statistics--2000) and I studied Bayesian modeling approaches for calibration of deterministic models as a reading course, and applied our findings to HEC-2 (now often implemented as HEC-RAS), a standard one-dimensional hydraulics model.


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