Cliff Spiegelman

Department of Statistics

Texas A&M University

Data Integrity and the Scientific Method:
The Case of Bullet Lead Data as Forensic Evidence and the JFK Assassination

The FBI has used the chemical analysis of bullet lead as a forensic tool for about 40 years. When a bullet(s) is found at a crime scene and in a suspect's possession the trace elements in the bullet can be compared. If the bullets are similar enough a match is declared. The use of this technique in court testimony is the subject of a relatively recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report. The NAS report has been covered by national print media, and broadcast media as well. I will discuss the report from the point of view of the two statisticians on the NAS panel who wrote the report. A main point will be that the FBI crime lab needs to pay more attention to following "the scientific method" in reaching their decisions. The basic premise of this talk is that sunlight is good and unnecessary darkness is not. The FBI Crime Laboratory subsequent to the NAS report has ceased using the compositional analysis of bullet lead. The issues discussed apply broadly to forensic science laboratory management.
      The second part of the talk will deal with Dr. Guinn's testimony to the House Select Committee on Assassinations concerning compositional bullet lead evidence in the JFK assassination.

Based upon joint work with Karen Kafadar, Bill Tobin, Dennis James, Stu Wexler, and Max Roundhill


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